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Gente Donald Trump maybe more than right


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NYC, NY, September 30, 2015 -(TerraUS, mhUSA)-
At the unveiling of his tax plan Monday, Donald Trump deployed a thoroughly debunked statistic about the American jobs market. The real unemployment rate, he claimed, is somewhere near 42 percent.

What about the the official unemployment rate, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics said was 5.1 percent for last month? That number, Trump said, ʻʻis the biggest joke there is in this countryʼʼ.

In August, Trump made the same statement to Time magazine. ʻʻI saw a chart the other day, our real unemployment because you have ninety million people that aren’t working. Ninety-three million to be exact,ʼʼ he said.

Whatever chart that was, Trump was reading it wrong. And he’s been called on his error repeatedly. My colleague Glenn Kessler wrote a thorough take-down at the time, pointing out that Trump was lumping together retirees, students, stay-at-home moms, and all kinds of people who aren ' t figured into the unemployment rate because they aren ' t available to work.

It doesn ' t seem that Trump was paying attention, so we ' re going to try again with charts. The unemployment rate last year was, on average, 6.2 percent, which reflects about 9.6 million unemployed out of 156 million in the civilian labor force (people ready and able to work, or actively looking). To be officially unemployed in America, you have to have looked for work within the past month, which is in itself an inexact appreciation of someone who is not working due to a lack of work or a big decline of the job market.

Now, there are people who have stopped looking for work because they ' re too discouraged by the crappy economy. But most people who aren ' t seeking employment are busy doing other things: learning to walk, going to school, staying at home to take care of children, taking a breather from work, retiring to the good life.

Without identifying any one in particular, Trump said Monday that ʻʻsome great economistsʼʼ have put the real unemployment rate at 30 percent, 32 percent. He then said the number might even be 42 percent, saying that ' s ʻʻthe highest I ' ve heard.ʼʼ

ʻʻTo be officially unemployed in America, you have to have looked for work within the past month, which is in itself an inexact appreciation of someone who is not working due to a lack of work or a big decline of the job market. ʼʼ

The only way to get to a 42 percent unemployment rate would be to count everyone ' s grandmas and stay-at-home spouses as unemployed. To take this kind of thinking to its logical extreme, consider that only 146 million of America ' s 319 million were employed in 2014. More than half of Americans did not have jobs (in part because they were teething). Maybe the real real unemployment rate should be 54 percent?

But Trump is correct in his suspicion that the official unemployment number doesn ' t tell the whole story. Of the 92 million Americans who didn ' t have jobs in 2014, six million wanted a job but hadn ' t been looking recently. They weren ' t counted in the unemployment rate, since, well, they weren ' t looking. The reasons varied: Some went back to school, or became occupied with family matters. Some simply gave up on finding a job.

In August, the government estimates that there were only about 624,000 discouraged workers far from 92 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports an alternative unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers. That number was 5.5 percent in August, compared to the official unemployment rate, which was 5.1.

There’s another, broader measure of unemployment that throws in the marginally attached anyone who looked for a job in the past year, but not within the past four weeks. There were about 1.8 million of those in August. Adding them to the mix bumps up the unemployment rate to 6.2 percent. Finally, the most expansive way the government measures unemployment also figures in part-time workers who can’t find full-time employment. There were 6.3 million of those in August, and they bring the rate up to 10.3 percent.




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